Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? | The Economist
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Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? | The Economist

November 4, 2019

Modern football is all about the numbers. We’ve crunched the data, ranked
all of this year’s hopefuls and simulated the competition
to see which countries have the potential to lift the World Cup in Russia this summer. How do you measure a country’s
potential for success? Countries with a large
supply of grassroots players tend to produce stronger teams. Germany has over 16 million players, the most of any country at the World Cup. Followed by Brazil. Iceland is the outlier, with
just over 32,000 players. The smallest talent pool of
any country in the tournament. The share of Google searches for football compared with other team sports, shows the appetite for
the game within a country. African countries dominate
the Google charts. With India and Pakistan at the bottom. Countries with a higher GDP per capita, have a better chance of success. Since they can spend more
on top notch training and facilities. Here, Germany, England and
Switzerland should have an edge. Star players make the difference. Any team with Lionel Messi
stands a chance of victory, but the draw is key. Even though Portugal
have Cristiano Ronaldo and are ranked much higher than Russia, the hosts have a better
chance of progressing thanks to an easy group. Not forgetting their home advantage. In international football, the home team wins nearly
twice as often as the visitors. Our model suggests that
despite 50 years of hurt England tend to over perform
in international matches. Harry Kane as captain
will lead the charge. We see them reaching the quarter finals. Based solely on the socio-economic data Germany should be favorites. But on current form, Brazil,
with the likes of Neymar are our predicted winners,
with a 27% chance of victory. Four years after an
embarrassing home exit, they will be out for revenge.

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  1. Idk… but what I do know is that it’s very likely that Brazil and France will be facing each other in the final

  2. Portugal = C. Ronaldo and Argentina = L. Messi already got out of the World Cup.. there’s not a chance..

  3. There is no correlation between national GDP and football performance. It is matter of luck. Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Portugal are already out of the match. England reaching quarter final prediction is correct. ?

  4. France won, you should have realised given their country has more world cup winners than any other country in the world at least partly due to their national Football training system. Nice try though, you also got England wrong but I didn't follow any other countries besides England, France and Sweden

  5. Does someone know what the start song is called that starts of the video? Please help me the Economist? Shazam doesn't cut it this time :-/

  6. Croatia took a piss on this entire video, LMAO.
    To hell with all these huge nations, the best team with the biggest heart and passion goes the longest way, and that's how it will always be.

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